After having to give up NHK Trophy due to yet another ankle injury, Yuzuru Hanyu also retired from the Rostelecom Cup, which will take place in a few days. This does not surprise me, the two competitions are so close that I would have been surprised by Hanyu’s presence in Russia, also because the ankle injury is a recurring injury with which it is better not to rush. Will he skate at the National Championship? I have no idea, there is more time for that competition, but his injuries in the fall of 2017 and fall of 2018 warn us that that time may not be enough. What will happen if he gives up the competition?
I have read some comments from people who believe that in that case Hanyu should be excluded from the national team, as if only winning a medal in the national championship gives the right to be part of the team. I guess these people do not have clear ideas and do not know neither the rules nor the history of the discipline. Let’s start with the history.
I checked the last two editions of the Olympic Games. For all the skaters I went to see what their result in the national championship had been. I have left out those who finished first, if their country had one place, those who finished first or second, if their country had two places, and those who got on the podium, if their country had three places. They earned their places at the national championship. In some rare cases I have not been able to find the result of the national championship, but these are already enough.
In column C I have listed the skaters, divided by discipline (column B) who have participated in the Olympic Games (the result at the OG is in column E) even without qualifying at the national championship (their result at the Nationals is in column F). In red I highlighted who did not go to the national championship. In the following columns I have listed the names of those who got on the podium, on five occasions I also indicated the fourth position, in one I went up to the fifth.
The skaters highlighted in yellow have participated in the Olympic Games. Those in gray can’t participate because they were too young. Those written in bold would have deserved to participate in the Olympic Games, at least if the only criterion used had been the result of the national championship, but they did not go to the Olympic Games because their federation preferred someone who came behind them or who did not skated in the national championship. The only thing I haven’t checked is whether these skaters had achieved the minimum TES.
The list includes Japanese, Chinese, American, Czech, Filipino, Spanish, Russian, Slovak, Hungarian, French, Italian, German, Australian and British skaters. It seems to me that there are many nations that, if they want to, ignore the result of the national championship. Even for the world championship and the continental championship, the federations do not strictly follow the national championship results.
This time I did not do accurate checks, but I remember that for the 2020 World Championship, which then was not held, the United States had designated Vincent Zhou, fourth in the national championship, and not Tomoki Hiwatashi, third. In 2019, Russia sent Evgenia Medvedeva, seventh, and not Stanislava Konstantinova, fourth (on the podium there were three skaters too young to be able to participate in the senior world championship). In 2013 Maxim Kovtun participated at the World Championship, even if he was fifth at the nationals after Evgeni Plushenko (injured in January), Sergei Voronov, Konstantin Menshov and Artur Gachinski.
Carolina Kostner in 2008 won world silver, but she had withdrawn from the previous national championship, in theory Valentina Marchei and Stefania Berton should have participated in the competition in Gothenburg, but the latter remained at home. In 2010 Italy had only one place, but both to the Olympic Games and to the World Championship went Kostner, silver medal in the Italian championship, and not Marchei, gold medal. In 2012 there were again two places, Marchei and Francesca Rio should have gone to Nice, but instead of Rio went Kostner, who won gold in France.
In 2011 Tessa Virtue/Scott Moir did not participate in the Canadian National Championship. On the podium went Vanessa Crone/Paul Poirier, Kaitlyn Weaver/Andrew Poje and Alexanda Paul/Mitchell Islam. Virtue/Moir, Crone/Poirier and Weaver/Poje went to the World Championship.
In 2004 Daisuke Takahashi won bronze in the national championship, but Japan had only two places and Takahashi went to the world championship, not Kazumi Kishimoto, silver. The following year Takahashi was even sixth in the national championship behind Takeshi Honda, Kensuke Nakaniwa, Nobunari Oda, Takahiko Kozuka and Kazumi Kishimoto. Only Honda and Takahashi went to the World Championship.
So if someone says that the national championship results are binding on the Olympic designation, they obviously don’t know enough about figure skating. What are the criteria used?
One of the criteria considered is World Standing. At the start of the season, therefore with only the results of the 2019-2020 season reduced by 30% and the 2020-2021 season, both seasons incomplete, Hanyu occupied the first place. Then the others competed and scored points, Hanyu got injured and therefore his points remained the same. Right now he is the second Japanese skater behind Yuma Kagiyama. Hanyu has 2554 points. The third Japanese is Shoma Uno, with 2358 points. Uno qualified for the Grand Prix Final. He just needs to finish fourth to overtake Hanyu. The fourth Japanese is Shun Sato, with 1679 points. In theory Sato could still qualify for the Grand Prix Final, but that is definitely unlikely. And even if he does and then wins the competition, he still won’t be able to overtake Hanyu in World Standing. Mathematically speaking, Sato doesn’t have the numbers to beat Hanyu. The other skaters have less points, so none of them can surpass Hanyu. It is almost certain that at the end of December Hanyu will be the third Japanese in the World Standing, and definitely won’t be ranked worse. I would say that in this respect Hanyu fully satisfies the Olympic selection criteria.
Another criteria is the best score obtained by skaters in international competitions. Not only the scores of the current season are considered, but also those of the previous season. I looked at the best score, and also the second best score, obtained by the top nine Japanese skaters in the last national championship. I stopped at nine because I wanted to control all the skaters who have some international experience. From the tenth, Sena Miyake, the international competitions are very few and their chances of participating in the Olympic Games do not exist. One of them, Lucas Tsuyoshi Honda, scored 225.89 points at the Cup of Austria this year, a higher score than Keiji Tanaka’s on the last two seasons, but Tanaka still participated in the 2018 Olympics and three World Championships, so it felt right to include him in my check.
With only two competitions, compared to four disputed by Kagiyama and Uno and three by Sato, Hanyu has established the highest score for a Japanese skater. And his second-highest score is only lower than Kagiyama’s best score and Uno’s, but higher than their second-best score, and higher than anyone else’s best score.
Just to understand, going beyond 300 points is not something for everyone. I checked SkatingScore, looking for all the scores achieved by skaters in international competitions in the last two seasons. On some scores I have drawn a red line. These are the Grand Prix competitions from last season, competitions that looked so much like a national championship that those scores cannot be taken seriously. It’s not just me saying this, the ISU itself doesn’t recognize these scores, even if it does recognize the results.
The green frame highlights where the best Japanese skaters internationally rank. The first three are them, Hanyu, Kagiyama and Uno. Hanyu was only surpassed by Nathan Chen, Kagiyama and Uno also by Vincent Zhou. The first of the others, Shun Sato, is located much lower, also behind Mikhail Kolyada, Keegan Messing and Daniel Grassl.
He didn’t do it this year because he didn’t compete, but for Hanyu, exceeding 300 points in at least one competition in the season is an established habit. Uno tried, but couldn’t keep up with the pace. The others have never made it to it for now, even if Kagiyama is not that far away.
And, with the high scores, the results also came. I focused only on the most important competitions: Olympic Games, World Championship, Grand Prix and Challenger series. For Hanyu I ignored the junior competitions, even so he is the one with the most seasons under his belt. On one of his victories at the Autumn Classic International I drew a line: that year the competition was not part of the Challenger Series.
The last time Hanyu did not make it to the podium was at the 2014 NHK Trophy, a competition in which it is already a miracle that he took part as he had not yet recovered from injuries suffered during the clash in the previous Cup of China. At the last World Championship he was third, despite clear physical problems. A Hanyu who was sick still did better than a healthy Uno. I know that in Free Skate Uno scored more points than Hanyu, but the competition is on two programs and was Hanyu who went on the podium. On that podium Hanyu has climbed seven times in eight participation, Uno only twice, but not in the last two participation. Uno returned to some international podium this fall, but in the previous two seasons it cannot be said that he was particularly brilliant. Among the seniors Kagiyama has always been on the podium. Apart from Hanyu, he is the only reliable one. The others have made few podiums, only one in the Grand Prix, none in major competitions, only one victory, in a Challenger Series.
The results are one of the criteria used by the federation to decide who to send to the Olympic Games, and despite the lack of results this season, last season’s results (with a podium at the World Championship!) are more than enough to make him deserve the convocation.
In the last two seasons Hanyu has not only skated in two international competitions, but has also skated in a national one. That was the only competition in which he did the free skate he had in mind. At the World Championship he was sick, another would have retired, he instead competed and even got on the podium. At the World Team Trophy he lost a quadruple jump out of sheer bad luck when the blade of his skate fell into a groove in the ice at the moment of the take off and he only managed to perform a single. Anna Shcherbakova also completely missed the first jump in the free skate at the Internationaux de France. She didn’t get the points for a jump she didn’t do, she got the penalty for the fall, but that’s it. They are incidents that sometimes happen, that can happen to any skater, they affect the competition in which they occur, but they are not worth worrying about.
Since it is not easy to compare the marks of the national championship with those of the international competitions, I have compared the base values. For all the skaters I looked at what their base value was in all the competitions they have participated in. Next to the base value I have indicated the number of elements on which they have received a negative GOE, to understand if they are able to skate a program with that base value or if they program many difficulties, but in the end they get a not so high score.
For each skater I have highlighted the highest base value in bold. I highlighted in yellow all the short programs with a base value higher than 42.00 points and the free programs with a base value higher than 85.00 points. In red are the base value equal (for the short program) or higher (for the free skate) than the best base value of Hanyu.
Hanyu almost always has demanding layout, the only exception was when he had that hitch that is unlikely to be repeated on other occasions. And he practically always skated well, the only exception was when he was sick. Uno, Kagiyama and Sato are a little more inaccurate, but while Kagiyama usually does difficult programs fairly well, Uno and Sato tend to do some mistakes. Anyone can make a mistake in a competition, there is no guarantee that, if someone has skated well in the past, he will do so with certainty even in a certain future competition, but when it comes to reliability, the most reliable is Hanyu, followed by Kagiyama.
Hanyu fully complies with several criteria set by his federation for Olympic designation, and will comply with them even if he does not take part in the National Championship.
Among the nonsense I have heard there is also one related to his age. When the Men’s competition of the Olympic Games will take place, how much Hanyu will be old? The day of the Men’s free skate he will be 27 years and 65 days. I checked the age of the winners of the medals, in Mens, Ladies, Pair (also Team Event), at the Olympic Games in this millennium. The complete list can be found here, I only transcribed those who had already turned 26, so they weren’t much younger, or were older, than Hanyu will be if he goes to Beijing.
It seems to me that there have been some skaters capable of getting on the podium, even at an age above his, even in recent times. I have highlighted in bold the skaters who have won a medal in their competition, to better distinguish them from those who have won it in the Team Event. And in 2014 Plushenko, who was over 31, got injured between the Team Event and the Men’s competition, but if he had repeated his score in the Men’s competition he would have won the bronze.
As for Japan, in 2014 the federation did not hesitate to send Daisuke Takahashi, fifth in the national championship, to Sochi. On the day of the Free Skate Takahashi was 27 years and 335 days old. Kozuka, third in the national championship, was almost 3 years younger than Takahashi. Oda, fourth, was a year younger. And Takahashi could be back on the ice once again, in ice dance, at nearly 36.
In 2016, for the first time, Hanyu did not participate in the national championship. In that case the problem was the fever. Should he have been excluded from the national team? This is what he did on his return. Four Continents Championship 2017:
Who has achieved the best result among Japanese skaters? And it’s not an important achievement just on a personal level. Let’s pretend Hanyu wasn’t there. Without him Uno would have won silver, Tanaka would have finished twelfth. At the National Championship the third was Takahito Mura. Mura could have done better than Tanaka, but he could have done worse. In his season there are 252.20 points obtained in September at the US Classic but also 219.74 points obtained in March at the Cup du Printemps. 2+12=14 (Uno + Tanaka, excluding Hanyu). Without Hanyu, are we sure Japan would have had three places in the 2018 Four Continents Championship?
Let’s take a good look at this result. All the Japanese are always behind Hanyu, but not only that. For Japan this the second time they win both gold and silver in the Men’s competition after 2014 (Hanyu gold, Machida silver). For the whole skating this is a historical achievement, the 223.20 points scored by Hanyu in the free skate are the historical world record, the highest score ever obtained in the program with the scoring code + 3/-3.
And, beyond the record, without Hanyu Japan would have had only two places for the 2018 World Championship, but also for the 2018 Olympic Games. Should he be excluded from the competition only because he had not participated in the national championship?
In the 2016-2017 season, the problem was a fever and not a sprained ankle. They are two different problems, a fever heals in a few days, an ankle, especially the right ankle, is a serious injury for a skater. I pretend not to know that Hanyu has participated in several competitions with a sprained ankle. We often found out later, so no one had a reason to worry before the competition. In the fall of 2017 Hanyu sprained his right ankle in the NHK Trophy official practice. We have all seen it. He withdrew from the competition, he missed the National Championship, he was away from the ice for a long time. When he resumed competing, what did he do? Olympic Games 2018:
Once again Hanyu was the best of the Japanese. Let’s take a good look at this result. He is the first Olympic back to back in men’s competition in 66 years. After WW II only he and Dick Button won two golds, I would say that it is a historic result. Hanyu is the first Japanese athlete to win the gold medal in the PyeongChang Olympic Games, with the medal being his nation’s third Olympic gold in figure skating and, for the first time, Japan win gold and silver in the same figure skating’s competition. Hanyu is also the first Japanese to win two consecutive golds in an individual discipline in the Winter Olympics and the first Asian to win two golds in one of the four disciplines of figure skating and ice dance.
Hanyu injured his right ankle again at the Rostelecom Cup 2018. New absence from the national championship, new long pause, return to the 2019 World Championship.
True, Hanyu did not win this competition. He was still the best Japanese. In an absolute sense, not only in the Men’s competition:
| M | L | D | |
| 1 | |||
| 2 | Hanyu | ||
| 3 | |||
| 4 | Uno | Kihira | |
| 5 | Sakamoto | ||
| 6 | Miyahara | ||
| 7 | |||
| 8 | |||
| 9 | |||
| 10 | |||
| 11 | |||
| 12 | |||
| 13 | |||
| 14 | Tanaka | ||
| 15 | |||
| 16 | |||
| 17 | |||
| 18 | |||
| 19 | |||
| 20 | |||
| 21 | Komatsubara/Koleto | ||
| 22 | |||
| 23 | |||
| 24 | |||
| 25 | |||
| 26 | |||
| 27 | |||
| 28 | |||
| 29 | |||
| 30 |
Hanyu won a silver, without him Japan would have won only a bronze. At home.
Of course, in competition it is always possible to make mistakes. Hanyu could participate, do several mistakes, and get a low position. But, with these results and with these precedents, if Hanyu were to declare that he was healed and want to compete, excluding him from the national team would mean taking a lot of responsibility.
Hanyu’s presence in Beijing means an almost certain exclusion for Shun Sato. I’m sorry for Sato, who I would have gladly watched compete, but there are three places. I am also sorry for some Japanese woman who will not go to Beijing, for some Russian, for some Koreans, for the Canadian man who will be excluded, for the Chinese, for the Italian. Unfortunately someone will remain out. I wish Shun to get a lot of satisfaction in the years to come but, results in hand, it is almost certain that he will be the strongest skater who will be excluded.
And at stake this time there is not only the individual medal. With Miura/Kihara’s remarkable growth over the past two seasons, Japan will be fighting for the team medal. Gold will be won by Russia, they are very strong in three disciplines, and even in the fourth they are not in such bad position, there is no competition. Silver will almost certainly be won by the United States. For the bronze, however, there is a competition, and it will be important to choose well who to compete. Who gives the most guarantees? There are only three skaters still in activity who have represented Japan in a team competition: Hanyu, Uno and Tanaka.
Hanyu only got one program wrong, the other times he has always been reliable. For Uno, the same cannot be said. Tanaka was never so strong, and he is not competitive with other Japanese anymore.
And if we go into the specifics of the scores there is a program in which, if he makes no mistakes, Hanyu is untouchable. The short program. These are the best international scores achieved by all skaters since the + 5/-5 scoring code has existed.
Chen alone sometimes does better than Hanyu, the others are behind. From 2015-2016 season, Hanyu can be surpassed in the short program only by Hanyu.
The scores achieved in 2018 until Lombardia Trophy count nothing, those skaters are in the list only because they competed before strongest skaters.
What happened in the past years is not important? Okay, let’s just look at the Japanese skaters in the last two seasons.
Hanyu is first, second and third. With only three competition, none perfect (two only according judges’ standard…). At the World Team Trophy he did a mistake on the 3A, something for him really surprising. He earned only 8.16 points for a 3A put in the second half of the program, the other three times that he did so with the current code of point he earned among 12.57 and 12.34 points, for his 3A in the first half at worst he earned from 12.00 to 10.29 points. And with the old score of point in the senior category his worst GOE was a +1.00 in the 2010 Rostelecom Cup.
At the National Championship one of his spin was called no value. In the other two competition that spin, with level 4, brought him 4.20 and 4.14 points. In the national championship the first call was level 2, with 0.85 points of GOE, for a total of 3.15 points. Still a harsh call, but better than the wrong one at the end, which lowered his score.
Even with these two special cases, no Japanese skater has been able to overcome Hanyu’s worst score even once. Really if Hanyu declares that he is healed and that he want to compete, is it possible to imagine someone other than him in the short program of the Team Event?
Of course, the Japanese federation can always send someone else to Beijing. I have always thought that everyone is free to commit suicide, if he so wishes, even if the suicide of a federation damages the athletes. But to say that if Hanyu misses the national championship he shouldn’t go to Beijing is sheer nonsense.
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